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sunshine moonlight's avatar

I don't think it's in the national interest to expand America's empire into Eastern Europe. China will be the first country since circa 1870 to have an economy bigger than America's in nominal terms, and it's already bigger in PPP. This implies even without changing the percentage of spending on defense it'll surpass America in military spending at some point naturally. On top of that, in PPP-adjusted terms its military budget's already bigger than it appears on paper because each dollar spent goes further for their conscript military than on an all-volunteer force. If America's military resources are strained through imperial overreach all over the globe, there's no way it'll be able to maintain a favorable balance of power against China in the latter's home region where the PLA will be almost entirely concentrated. Thus, America should transfer the burden of European defense to the EU so that the US can throw all its resources into Asia and the western Pacific. With hindsight, it probably would've been better for Washington to have accepted a concert of great powers during the unipolar moment wherein Russia could dominate the former USSR, Europe could run its own continent, and China could be given a free hand in inner Asia. But since this never happened, we're heading towards a G2 world. The weaker Russia gets, the more it becomes a Chinese vassal even when there's public backlash in Russia because they have no alternative source of capital. This secures vast natural resources for Beijing and gives it a tool to distract and drain US military attention and political capital. The only semi-realistic alternative to the dollar is the yuan, and cutting out a country as significant as Russia from the dollar economy has incentivized other countries to look towards the yuan. It's still unrealistic to expect the dollar to lose its status though it's possible for there to be a trend away from it.

Perhaps my ainoco brain's too Asia-centric, but that's my opinion of the Russo-Ukrainian War and foreign policy based on national interests rather than on universal values.

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Torposting Casual's avatar

Tell me in advance when this is about to happen so I can insider trade some Adidas stock.

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