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Walt Bismarck's avatar

I will start.

>Who are you voting for and why?

Neither, mostly because I'm lazy and live in a safe red state. Can read my essay linked above if you want more information on my reasoning.

>Who do you think is going to win and why?

Honestly go back and forth. The swing state polls are too herded to do any big brained quantitative analysis at the moment, so it's all a matter of vibes. And to that end, Trump support isn't low status anymore but that also reduces the shy Trump voter effect.... and so my ultimate take is everyone is shooting in the dark right now.

>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.

Kamala campaign was 6/10... started strong with the astroturfed brat vibes but fucked up on consistency. She did okay in the debate but they should have bullied homegirl into actually preparing for interviews. Walz choice was meh, he benefited from astroturfed enthusiasm but it petered out.

Trump campaign was 5/10. They were lazy and complacent early on after Biden shit his pants and the assassination attempt gave Trump a somewhat magical aura for a while, but they basically saved it toward the end. Vance choice seemed bad at first but he had more staying power than people gave him credit for and he looked better than Walz in their debate.

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Theon Ultima's avatar

>Who are you voting for and why?

I'm incredibly ambivalent with this election. I ended up casting my vote for Trump. My hope is the young big-brained talent behind him (Vance, Vivek, Musk, Thiel, et al) will run the show in lieu of Trump's caprices and his low-IQ, conspiratorial, evangelical base. The long game hope of mine being the Democrats blame DEI/Woke culture war nonsense for their defeat and continue shifting in a more competent Spencarian direction while the GOP shifts in a similar direction under the big-brain team. Giving us two competent parties with different flavors -- which I feel would be the most healthy outcome for our republic contra many's antagonism towards "the two party system/there all the same".

>Who do you think is going to win and why?

I think Trump is the favorite. He over-performed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 as the underdog and now is the favorite. I see little reason why he won't again over-perform.

>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.

Harris (4/10): Things looked great for her at first, she seemed to have overcome the initial dislike most felt for her and pivoted away from her retarded 2020 woke-frenzied positions. Since perhaps September her campaign has been low energy. Her strange focus on getting White men was a poor move, she should've focused on White women with a particular attack vector towards abortion. Not appearing on Rogan was a bad look and gave Trump a critical boost amongst flighty barstoolers. She's also done a poor job of either boosting Biden and his "economic success" and tying herself to that or differentiating herself from him and the effects of inflation and employment.

Trump (7/10): Inversely Trump started of poorly but has since shored up his position. He's managed to obfuscate the abortion issue enough somehow both allaying more lukewarm pro-choice voters and his pro-life supporters. The big-brain team of Vivek, Vance, Musk has given a sense of competency behind Trump that he was sorely lacking in 16/20 and his appearances on various barstooler podcasts highlighted his best qualities-- namely, his charisma.

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