The Walt Right Election Day Jamboree
I'm liveblogging the 2024 election
Those of you who read my recent analysis of Trump vs. Kamala already know I’m not particularly invested in the outcome of tomorrow’s election.
Be that as it may, I *am* a lifelong political junkie who loves watching election day coverage. I’m also a committed fan of hearing myself talk, and greatly enjoy making other people aware of my opinions on various matters.
As such I’ll be liveblogging the election tomorrow on this page, and encourage all of you guys to comment below so we can get some interesting community discussion.
Here are some preliminary questions to get you kids started:
Who are you voting for and why?
Who do you think is going to win and why?
Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Anyone interested in livelier discussion can also feel free to become a Paychad and join the Walt Right’s private group chat. I’ll be periodically sharing the best insights from our election thread on this very post, so paying me $5 and posting something smart there will be a good way to get some decent exposure if you care about that.
11/5 — 11:00pm EST
Taking a break from blogging to watch Matty’s stream and enjoy some liberal tears.
Might update this later and might publish a new piece tomorrow, we’ll see.
11/5 — 10:40pm EST
Thanks to for this:
Gracias, muchachos!
11/5 — 10:35pm EST
Trump’s popular vote margin over Kamala is greater than Biden’s 2020 margin in Cali.
11/5 — 10:30pm EST
What if we kissed in the Matt Yglesias blackpill livestream?
11/5 — 10:15pm EST
The dam is breaking. I don’t see Kamala sweeping the Rust Belt at this point.
Also:
11/5 — 10:05pm EST
Not looking great for Madame Coconut:
11/5 — 9:55pm EST
Yeah, Kamala needs a crazy bantubomb in Philly to squeak out a victory.
By that point Trump will prob be at like 85% chance of victory and there’s no way the Right won’t call shenanigans. Madame Coconut isn’t getting a clean victory.
11/5 — 9:25pm EST
Really interesting to see Trump less than 10% under Kamala in NJ and RI.
Tony Soprano could deliver him the popular vote.
Interested to see AZ results… if he does well in Phoenix that could portend well for turning out GOP in Cali which could offset all the dead illegal immigrants.
11/5 — 9:15pm EST
There it is:
11/5 — 9:10pm EST
Honestly boys unless Madame Coconut gets a massive blackpepo surge in Philly I feel like Blumpf is gonna take this. Trendline in MI and PA seems decent for him so far.
Also Omaha confirmed for gay.
11/5 — 8:50pm EST
Holy shit.
Doubt this lasts but genuinely impressive.
If VA somehow goes red expect to see Youngkin competitive in 2028.
Also:
11/5 — 8:45pm EST
The night is looking pretty great for Trump so far, at least in the Sun Belt.
Genuinely insane how competitive VA is right now with so much of the D.C. burbs in.
All comes down to PA.
11/5 — 8:15pm EST
Orangeman at 63c on PredictIt. Watching Pittsburgh returns very carefully. Seems some underperformance in midwestern burbs but good results in Atlanta and Texas.
Also imagine getting paid for this.
11/5 — 8:00pm EST
Hot take from :
DeSantis got retirees from the rust belt to retire in FL and caused libs to leave for Georgia. Single handedly rebuilt the blue wall
Anyway early Texas results look good for Drumpf and some interesting signs from the D.C. burbs in northern VA. Also seems he is running slightly ahead of 2020 in Atlanta.
11/5 — 7:55pm EST
Trump just flipped Osceola County. Florida Puerto Ricans aren’t woke pussies.
Seems Tampa is also going red while Palm Beach is on the precipice and Orlando has him at 42.5%… Trump better call out DeSantis by name tonight.
11/5 — 7:45pm EST
CNN is saying exit polling in GA has Trump winning independents by 11 points up from minus 9 in 2020… if that is even remotely legit he is sweeping the Sun Belt.
Also 61c at PredictIt vs. 44c for Kamala
11/5 — 7:35pm EST
Jacksonville just flipped to Blumpf—bodes well for Jawja. GOP also up big in Miami and even flipped St. Pete while staying respectable in Orlando.
DeSantis turned Florida into blood red and people think of him as a joke. Really sad.
11/5 — 7:20pm EST
Seems Trump is running a few points ahead of 2020 in Orlando/Tampa/Broward and just barely ahead in Jacksonville. PredictIt is back to tied.
11/5 — 7:10pm EST
Not sure if this means anything, but Sumter country in FL is 93% in and so far Trump is matching his 2020 performance. Kamala’s also on top on PredictIt now after Trump has been leading all day…
11/5 — 6:30pm EST
Some initial observations:
They aren’t talking about Kentucky and Indiana like they usually do—it seems like they are hyperfocused on swing states this time which I guess makes sense but usually there is at least a kayfabe that safe states matter
Very funny how CBS is emphasizing how the irregularities in Wisconsin def aren’t nefarious. Seems kind of silly given that non Fox viewers aren’t going to give a shit to begin with.
11/5 — 6:10pm EST
Watching the election coverage with my libtard paralegal Jew exgf and it’s quite intriguing hearing the horribly batshit takes that have been circulating on the other side. For instance she’s quite convinced the assassination attempt on Blumpf was orchestrated because he didn’t have a permanent injury on his ear afterwards and also insists he is actually more senile than Biden. Really drives home for me the extent to which we’re all in our own echo chambers at this point.
11/5 — 6:00pm EST
I’ll give a free founding sub to the first guy who DMs me a stable CNN link.
11/5 — 5:30pm EST
First polls are about to close, boys! Excited to get this shit started in earnest.
Also my boy
is weighing in:>Who are you voting for and why?
Trump. We have unfinished business. Mass deportations. Radical cutting of the Federal government. Get RFK in D.C. to Make America Healthy Again. Get Elon and Ron Paul in D.C. to Make America Free Again. Stop WWIII before it can start. Rout out the snakes of the deep state. etc. etc.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Trump. 80,000+ Amish voting in Pennsylvania for the first time in unprecedented fashion will be the tipping point. I have significant concerns about fraud considering 2020. But some of the worst aspects of the issue were cleared up by GOP legislatures in the swing states, so I think there is more of an even playing field this time around.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala 3/10
Coup nomination from Biden.
Wacky Walz as token old cracka VP pick
No coherent identity as an individual much less as a platform
Cannot put together an intelligible thought
Etc.
Trump 8/10
I actually think Trump has ran a pretty solid campaign.
Prioritizing early and mail in voting despite being ideologically opposed
Not debating in the primary was a no-brainer but nevertheless I give him credit for not walking into the trap
Attacking Biden for his competency and failing health so hard that they forced him out of the entire race.
The RFK/Tulsi/Elon alliance is legendary
Took a literal bullet and got back up
Demonstrated significant capacity by nonstop rallies, multiple longform interviews, etc.
3 hours with Rogan freeform is impressive and will really give people a sense that he is a genuine person
Taking campaign advice from Duke Barron for how to court the youth and online vote was very smart
Vance was an excellent pick to court the MAGA base of white people and rust belt.
All in all, I do think this is a serious fork in the road for America. As Elon said, if Kamala wins, they will ensure that there is enough illegal migration to turn the entire country into California irrevocably.
The American People are not going to let that happen. MAGA.
11/5 — 3:00pm EST
My Brahmin BFF weighs in:
Alright, time for me to make my entrance.
> Who are you voting for and why?
Up until today, I was on the fence about whether to vote or not. Today morning I decided, "Alright, I'll just walk up to my polling place (it's at the fire station at city hall three blocks away from me) and get it done." My initial thoughts were either to leave the President slot blank, while voting all Republican down ballot, or else to write in Deez Nutz. I even considered writing in Walt Bismarck, but then I remembered that's not his legal name – which is incidentally kinda faggy.
Basically, though, when I entered in my ticket number and put the card into the printing machine, I was just completely overcome by how much I do not care about this election and how little legitimacy it holds in my mind. I really and truly resent having to participate in a ritualistic institution that does not deserve any respect whatsoever in its current condition, but WeLiveInASociety.JPG or whatever.
Basically, in that quick second of utter despondency and anger, an instinct took over, and I clicked on the Cheeto Nazi Rapist.
I don't even think I can claim that my vote was a "Fuck You" to the system or whatnot. Just a huge, "I Can't Believe How Much This Doesn't Matter". Anyway, my county went 96% for him in 2020, and 72% in 2020, so my participation amounts to nothing either way.
The other thing that may have factored into this last-minute plunge was remembering how upset I was at the assassination attempt. That's a piss poor reason to go for DJT, but it's not even in the bottom 50% of reasons any other voter gives for their ridiculous choice.
My biggest regret is that he is an old man, and I am inclined to the forcible removal of as many people septuagenarian dinosaurs from halls of power as possible, permanently.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
I'd put my odds on Queen Vindaloo-Jerk Chicken In A Pansuit. This is my election map: https://imgur.com/a/z4Fnff0
As it happens, it is the exact same election map that my co-Tortugan and technical lead, Mr. Blackbeard came up with. He's a smart guy and it's affirming to know ours instincts are similar. High human capital thinks alike, etc.
This makes me sad because I would really enjoy seeing JD Vance as a beefy, shirtless, oiled up Naruto on inauguration day.
On a more serious note, even if DJT were to make it back in the White House, he is such a disaster on a personal level – he totally lacks any discipline or follow-through – I have no reason to believe he's going to be less of a giant fuckup than KDH is.
Really, the only positive I can see for a DJT win is that there will be some more breathing room for guys behind the scenes to work on putting in place things for a success JD/Vivek person on the next cycle. Even that is doubtful.
People claim that a KDH win would be better for rightists because it will motivate them, but all I predict it going to happen is the spurning up of 55 more grifty political events/organizations that don't do shit at moving the needle on structural issues (e.g., rolling back Civil Rights bench decisions, taking a hatchet to the Fed, ending the Dept. of Education, etc.)
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
5/10 for both. I think they each played to where their greatest strengths are and avoided their biggest weaknesses. Honestly, I just hope the counting is over soon (as in no later than tomorrow night)
I guess the best way to summarize how I feel my involvement in today's affairs is as follows: one time, in high school, just to firmly prove to myself that I am not heterosexual, I went down on a girl. It was literally one of the most revolting things I've chosen to put myself thorough, and fifteen years later, I still think I haven't washed the experience out of my mouth.
11/5 — 12:00pm EST
Another take from longtime Tortugan , who you may recall from his popular essay The Post Capitalist Economy:
> Who are you voting for and why?
I'm voting for Trump because I am a heterosexual, and I prefer fucking my own wife vs watching someone else do it for me.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
Tougher to say. I think it really just comes down to Pennsylvania. If Trump loses PA, then he needs to get either MN, WI, or MI. MN will be tough because Walz is from there and it's not really been a swing state lately. MI will be tough because of Detroit (take that how you will). But, if Trump loses PA, what are the odds that he also wins WI? Probably low. So, depends on PA.
I'm saying Trump though because the polling is looking better than 2016/2020, and that JRE bump. Vance is also a much better VP candidate than Pence, but that may just be hopium. Either way, I'm also not that invested because I think the federal government is beyond saving anyway.
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
I think Harris underperformed and Trump overperformed. That may just be my bias though. I agree with Theon that Harris started strong but then really went downhill, whereas Trump came out weak but then got stronger as election day got closer.
I honestly wonder how much it matters. Most people have their minds made up already, although I have had some very surprising people tell me they are voting for Trump. I agree Trump has managed to downplay the abortion stuff, and going on Joe Rogan, Theo Von, etc was a brilliant move.
Harris: 6/10
Trump: 8/10
11/5 — 11:30am EST
This guy thinks early vote data coming out of Florida bodes well for Blumpf:
Will let my beloved reader judge for himself.
11/5 — 11:00am EST
Great take below from Alt Right veteran and Tortuga Society COO :
>Who are you voting for and why?
I'm incredibly ambivalent with this election. I ended up casting my vote for Trump. My hope is the young big-brained talent behind him (Vance, Vivek, Musk, Thiel, et al) will run the show in lieu of Trump's caprices and his low-IQ, conspiratorial, evangelical base. The long game hope of mine being the Democrats blame DEI/Woke culture war nonsense for their defeat and continue shifting in a more competent Spencarian direction while the GOP shifts in a similar direction under the big-brain team. Giving us two competent parties with different flavors -- which I feel would be the most healthy outcome for our republic contra many's antagonism towards "the two party system/there all the same".
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think Trump is the favorite. He over-performed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 as the underdog and now is the favorite. I see little reason why he won't again over-perform.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris (4/10): Things looked great for her at first, she seemed to have overcome the initial dislike most felt for her and pivoted away from her retarded 2020 woke-frenzied positions. Since perhaps September her campaign has been low energy. Her strange focus on getting White men was a poor move, she should've focused on White women with a particular attack vector towards abortion. Not appearing on Rogan was a bad look and gave Trump a critical boost amongst flighty barstoolers. She's also done a poor job of either boosting Biden and his "economic success" and tying herself to that or differentiating herself from him and the effects of inflation and employment.
Trump (7/10): Inversely Trump started of poorly but has since shored up his position. He's managed to obfuscate the abortion issue enough somehow both allaying more lukewarm pro-choice voters and his pro-life supporters. The big-brain team of Vivek, Vance, Musk has given a sense of competency behind Trump that he was sorely lacking in 16/20 and his appearances on various barstooler podcasts highlighted his best qualities-- namely, his charisma.
Def agree that Trump’s obfuscation of abortion has been extremely underrated and suspect the conglomeration of EHC behind him this time will help out in the burbs.
11/5 — 10:30am EST
Autistic wunderkind (AKA dude who redpilled Uncle Walt back in 2011) predicts a victory for Trump.
This moves me from like 55% sure of a Trump victory to 65% because whenever Ryan says something it usually ends up being true.
In 2016 Ryan also provided the best quantitative breakdown of why Trump would win, combing through the crosstabs / party registration data at a time when such a thing was risky and low prestige after the tremendous failure of “unskewers” in 2012.
But his analysis ended up being spot on, and with this victory Ryan put major points on the board for his own intellectual credibility and that of the Alt Right.
11/5 — 10:10am EST
As usual has some interesting takes on the election.
One thing I agree with him on is that the GOP was on the decline prior to Trump and he gave them a raison d'être. The Tea Party was an intransigent faction of solipsistic burghers that pushed Romney into making far too many quasi-Randian economic concessions to lock down their vote. Trump genuinely (if temporarily and in a very Faustian sort of way) saved the GOP by sublimating that impulse into nationalism and breaking off downscale Tea Partiers from the goofy true believer Cruz people.
11/5 — 10:00am EST
has the best case for Madame Coconut’s victory I’ve seen:
11/5 — 9:40am EST
Interesting take from (follow our boy on Twitter):
Election looks only slightly tilted towards Trump. The polls underestimated him in 2020, but that year was an anomaly due to COVID as well as the fact that Trump was still a low status candidate. Polls will still underestimate support among the Q boomers and his base, but there is no reason to think that we will see polling errors as atrocious as those that happened in previous elections with Trump. Even beyond that, Trump's polling in swing states has traditionally been much more accurate, and he's been overestimated in the sun belt.
11/5 — 9:15am EST
Alternate election maps from my Walt Right fam:
:
:
If you want yours posted throw it in the private chat; anyone who calls it perfectly will get publicly crowned for their galaxy brain prediction.
11/5 — 9am EST
Today’s the big day.
A lot of people seem to be saying it’ll be too close to call tonight... but I get the feeling we’re in for a shocker in either direction, and also suspect that polling error won’t be evenly distributed across the states this time around. Seems the early voting data is good for Republicans but that weird Selzer poll throws a wrench in that narrative especially given the herding that’s been happening.
Let me know in the comments if you have any hot takes as to how we should interpret the data that currently exists.
11/5 — 1am EST
Does anyone else think it's weird af that Harris is doing so well in the Rust Belt but seemingly lagging in the Sun Belt? Really contravenes all my political instincts and makes me think something fishy is going on with how they're measuring turnout.
:
Black vote in the south. There was enthusiasm for Biden b/c he was Obama's veep, and it was the summer of Floyd
:
Midwesterners are more reserved. They like clean lines and inoffensive language. The sun belt is filled with wild people. Borderers, ethnics, people who don’t like being told what to do but are permissive of vulgarity. This all seems like Albion’s seed stuff to me
11/4 — 8pm EST
I’ll begin this liveblog by posting my own election day map. Note this is based purely on vibes and I haven’t seriously looked at the polls in weeks (I also don’t feel bad about this because the industry is herding quite aggressively at the moment).
I will start.
>Who are you voting for and why?
Neither, mostly because I'm lazy and live in a safe red state. Can read my essay linked above if you want more information on my reasoning.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Honestly go back and forth. The swing state polls are too herded to do any big brained quantitative analysis at the moment, so it's all a matter of vibes. And to that end, Trump support isn't low status anymore but that also reduces the shy Trump voter effect.... and so my ultimate take is everyone is shooting in the dark right now.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala campaign was 6/10... started strong with the astroturfed brat vibes but fucked up on consistency. She did okay in the debate but they should have bullied homegirl into actually preparing for interviews. Walz choice was meh, he benefited from astroturfed enthusiasm but it petered out.
Trump campaign was 5/10. They were lazy and complacent early on after Biden shit his pants and the assassination attempt gave Trump a somewhat magical aura for a while, but they basically saved it toward the end. Vance choice seemed bad at first but he had more staying power than people gave him credit for and he looked better than Walz in their debate.
>Who are you voting for and why?
I'm incredibly ambivalent with this election. I ended up casting my vote for Trump. My hope is the young big-brained talent behind him (Vance, Vivek, Musk, Thiel, et al) will run the show in lieu of Trump's caprices and his low-IQ, conspiratorial, evangelical base. The long game hope of mine being the Democrats blame DEI/Woke culture war nonsense for their defeat and continue shifting in a more competent Spencarian direction while the GOP shifts in a similar direction under the big-brain team. Giving us two competent parties with different flavors -- which I feel would be the most healthy outcome for our republic contra many's antagonism towards "the two party system/there all the same".
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think Trump is the favorite. He over-performed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 as the underdog and now is the favorite. I see little reason why he won't again over-perform.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris (4/10): Things looked great for her at first, she seemed to have overcome the initial dislike most felt for her and pivoted away from her retarded 2020 woke-frenzied positions. Since perhaps September her campaign has been low energy. Her strange focus on getting White men was a poor move, she should've focused on White women with a particular attack vector towards abortion. Not appearing on Rogan was a bad look and gave Trump a critical boost amongst flighty barstoolers. She's also done a poor job of either boosting Biden and his "economic success" and tying herself to that or differentiating herself from him and the effects of inflation and employment.
Trump (7/10): Inversely Trump started of poorly but has since shored up his position. He's managed to obfuscate the abortion issue enough somehow both allaying more lukewarm pro-choice voters and his pro-life supporters. The big-brain team of Vivek, Vance, Musk has given a sense of competency behind Trump that he was sorely lacking in 16/20 and his appearances on various barstooler podcasts highlighted his best qualities-- namely, his charisma.