Neither, mostly because I'm lazy and live in a safe red state. Can read my essay linked above if you want more information on my reasoning.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Honestly go back and forth. The swing state polls are too herded to do any big brained quantitative analysis at the moment, so it's all a matter of vibes. And to that end, Trump support isn't low status anymore but that also reduces the shy Trump voter effect.... and so my ultimate take is everyone is shooting in the dark right now.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala campaign was 6/10... started strong with the astroturfed brat vibes but fucked up on consistency. She did okay in the debate but they should have bullied homegirl into actually preparing for interviews. Walz choice was meh, he benefited from astroturfed enthusiasm but it petered out.
Trump campaign was 5/10. They were lazy and complacent early on after Biden shit his pants and the assassination attempt gave Trump a somewhat magical aura for a while, but they basically saved it toward the end. Vance choice seemed bad at first but he had more staying power than people gave him credit for and he looked better than Walz in their debate.
Early in Trump's campaign I was more of a collapsatarian who was (and still am) sore about Trump's throwing J6ers under the bus. A second Trump term would at least create more breathing room for the reactionary right as a vanguard, however, and a non-zero probability of his freeing Ross Ulbricht is reason enough for me to vote for him. I'm quite impressed with the aggressive direction Trump's taken his campaign, emphasizing mass deportation rather than wall-building, for instance.
I'm incredibly ambivalent with this election. I ended up casting my vote for Trump. My hope is the young big-brained talent behind him (Vance, Vivek, Musk, Thiel, et al) will run the show in lieu of Trump's caprices and his low-IQ, conspiratorial, evangelical base. The long game hope of mine being the Democrats blame DEI/Woke culture war nonsense for their defeat and continue shifting in a more competent Spencarian direction while the GOP shifts in a similar direction under the big-brain team. Giving us two competent parties with different flavors -- which I feel would be the most healthy outcome for our republic contra many's antagonism towards "the two party system/there all the same".
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think Trump is the favorite. He over-performed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 as the underdog and now is the favorite. I see little reason why he won't again over-perform.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris (4/10): Things looked great for her at first, she seemed to have overcome the initial dislike most felt for her and pivoted away from her retarded 2020 woke-frenzied positions. Since perhaps September her campaign has been low energy. Her strange focus on getting White men was a poor move, she should've focused on White women with a particular attack vector towards abortion. Not appearing on Rogan was a bad look and gave Trump a critical boost amongst flighty barstoolers. She's also done a poor job of either boosting Biden and his "economic success" and tying herself to that or differentiating herself from him and the effects of inflation and employment.
Trump (7/10): Inversely Trump started of poorly but has since shored up his position. He's managed to obfuscate the abortion issue enough somehow both allaying more lukewarm pro-choice voters and his pro-life supporters. The big-brain team of Vivek, Vance, Musk has given a sense of competency behind Trump that he was sorely lacking in 16/20 and his appearances on various barstooler podcasts highlighted his best qualities-- namely, his charisma.
Neither because getting an absentee ballot is annoying. I voted Trump in 2020 though.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Last week I thought Trump. Now I think Kamala because the vibe totally shifted after the Madison Square Garden rally. Harris has organic momentum on Twitter, whereas Trump depends on Musk boosting and the polls probably overcorrected. He could still pull it off though since there's less motivation for the Dems since there's no pandemic, no riots, and he was already president, so the fear mongering doesn't work against undecideds.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris campaign is a 7/10: For such an uncharismatic candidate shoved in late, she managed to generate energy and handled the Palestine demonstrators adroitly enough that they didn't sink her.
Trump campaign is 4/10: He was campaigning overtime at the end of the 2020 election, whereas this time it felt like a standard candidate's campaign
I'm voting for Trump because I am a heterosexual, and I prefer fucking my own wife vs watching someone else do it for me.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
Tougher to say. I think it really just comes down to Pennsylvania. If Trump loses PA, then he needs to get either MN, WI, or MI. MN will be tough because Walz is from there and it's not really been a swing state lately. MI will be tough because of Detroit (take that how you will). But, if Trump loses PA, what are the odds that he also wins WI? Probably low. So, depends on PA.
I'm saying Trump though because the polling is looking better than 2016/2020, and that JRE bump. Vance is also a much better VP candidate than Pence, but that may just be hopium. Either way, I'm also not that invested because I think the federal government is beyond saving anyway.
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
I think Harris underperformed and Trump overperformed. That may just be my bias though. I agree with Theon that Harris started strong but then really went downhill, whereas Trump came out weak but then got stronger as election day got closer.
I honestly wonder how much it matters. Most people have their minds made up already, although I have had some very surprising people tell me they are voting for Trump. I agree Trump has managed to downplay the abortion stuff, and going on Joe Rogan, Theo Von, etc was a brilliant move.
I don't vote out of principle. But I support Trump.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Election looks only slightly tilted towards Trump. The polls underestimated him in 2020, but that year was an anomaly due to COVID as well as the fact that Trump was still a low status candidate. Polls will still underestimate support among the Q boomers and his base, but there is no reason to think that we will see polling errors as atrocious as those that happened in previous elections with Trump. Even beyond that, Trump's polling in swing states has traditionally been much more accurate, and he's been overestimated in the sun belt. See
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
The Biden/Kamala campaigns were doing what was expected given the candidates they had; you're not going to be visiting 50 states, going hard with interviews, and filling stadiums with those two. The only thing that they can be rated on is their (bad) choice of Walz for VP -- they shouldn't have focused on getting a generic White guy to complement la negra, but a stern and serious person to complement the DEI prostitician. 6/10
Trump's campaign was not as energetic as it used to be, but it was still fine for the most part. Getting Musk on board was a great move. On Vance: I view him as a bold and risky choice. He's not good for optics, but in terms of competence, judgement, and political knowledge he's by far the best choice for a succeeding president. 8/10
Up until today, I was on the fence about whether to vote or not. Today morning I decided, "Alright, I'll just walk up to my polling place (it's at the fire station at city hall three blocks away from me) and get it done." My initial thoughts were either to leave the President slot blank, while voting all Republican down ballot, or else to write in Deez Nutz. I even considered writing in Walt Bismarck, but then I remembered that's not his legal name – which is incidentally kinda faggy.
Basically, though, when I entered in my ticket number and put the card into the printing machine, I was just completely overcome by how much I do not care about this election and how little legitimacy it holds in my mind. I really and truly resent having to participate in a ritualistic institution that does not deserve any respect whatsoever in its current condition, but WeLiveInASociety.JPG or whatever.
Basically, in that quick second of utter despondency and anger, an instinct took over, and I clicked on the Cheeto Nazi Rapist.
I don't even think I can claim that my vote was a "Fuck You" to the system or whatnot. Just a huge, "I Can't Believe How Much This Doesn't Matter". Anyway, my county went 96% for him in 2020, and 72% in 2020, so my participation amounts to nothing either way.
The other thing that may have factored into this last-minute plunge was remembering how upset I was at the assassination attempt. That's a piss poor reason to go for DJT, but it's not even in the bottom 50% of reasons any other voter gives for their ridiculous choice.
My biggest regret is that he is an old man, and I am inclined to the forcible removal of as many people septuagenarian dinosaurs from halls of power as possible, permanently.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
I'd put my odds on Queen Vindaloo-Jerk Chicken In A Pansuit. This is my election map: https://imgur.com/a/z4Fnff0
As it happens, it is the exact same election map that my co-Tortugan and technical lead, Mr. Blackbeard came up with. He's a smart guy and it's affirming to know ours instincts are similar. High human capital thinks alike, etc.
On a more serious note, even if DJT were to make it back in the White House, he is such a disaster on a personal level – he totally lacks any discipline or follow-through – I have no reason to believe he's going to be less of a giant fuckup than KDH is.
Really, the only positive I can see for a DJT win is that there will be some more breathing room for guys behind the scenes to work on putting in place things for a success JD/Vivek person on the next cycle. Even that is doubtful.
People claim that a KDH win would be better for rightists because it will motivate them, but all I predict it going to happen is the spurning up of 55 more grifty political events/organizations that don't do shit at moving the needle on structural issues (e.g., rolling back Civil Rights bench decisions, taking a hatchet to the Fed, ending the Dept. of Education, etc.)
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
5/10 for both. I think they each played to where their greatest strengths are and avoided their biggest weaknesses. Honestly, I just hope the counting is over soon (as in no later than tomorrow night)
I guess the best way to summarize how I feel my involvement in today's affairs is as follows: one time, in high school, just to firmly prove to myself that I am not heterosexual, I went down on a girl. It was literally one of the most revolting things I've chosen to put myself thorough, and fifteen years later, I still think I haven't washed the experience out of my mouth.
1. Not in a swing state, voting for Harris since I pre-committed 2 years ago to give my symbolic vote to which party didn’t nominate a Septuagenarian. Don’t really care who wins, though Trump will make my Job much harder and more fun at the same time.
2. Harris. My gut is that everyone is herding to not look embarrassed if they lose, except NYT which is releasing crazy, slightly Harris polls that I bet will be accurate.
3. Harris 5/10. It is the most milk toast Campaign possible on just the vibes. Since she didn’t come out strongly for anything, there’s little enthusiasm and little offense.
Trump 3/10. He is not running his incredible 2016 campaign. He didn’t leverage the assassination attempts well. He’s not going on the offensive enough.
Biden 2/10. That was one of the worse campaigns ever. If he didn’t drop out, Trump would have had Regan level victories
The most qualified candidate, myself. Not in a swing state so my vote doesn’t matter.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think the Blue Wall holds and Kamala wins while losing Nevada and Arizona bc enough Latinos switched to Trump. Honestly I have no idea though, like Walt said there’s a lot of herding. I think pollsters have basically thrown up their hands and don’t want people to yell at them, so they’ve ~all come to a gentleman’s agreement to not publish results outside consensus.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
It’s really hard to rate Kamala’s campaign independent of her. On one hand, they limited her appearances which, given her propensity to vapidly word salad every interview, may have been the right move. On the other hand, she was unknown and more contact with voters would have been a good idea. I think they could have done a better job manufacturing photo op situations, although it only really worked for Trump because he plays the situation perfectly. When he worked at McDonalds, he hammed it up instead of going for a stale blue-collar vibe. I would say 7/10 but I can see +/- 2 points either way.
I’d give Trump 5/10 but again, it’s really hard to rate campaigns independent of candidates. Trump was always going to be Trump. He’s going to get pissed off and go off-script. If it wasn’t Haitians having cat a la mode in Springfield, it’s something else. On the other hand, I think he had a real opportunity for a landslide election post-assassination attempt if he had just shut the fuck up and talked about unity. But he was never going to do that so now it’s a 50-50 election. The campaign did a good job playing to his charisma with his Rogan/McDonald’s appearances and was able to stop some of the bleeding on abortion by focusing on immigration.
Also Trump being Trump has won him huge gains among minority voters which no Republican politician has done in the last 20 years. He also lost a lot of white middle-class pseudo-intellectuals who always vote, will be interesting to see if it evens out and how much the deracialization narrative holds.
I’m off to an American expats watch party in my home city of NSW. I did one four years ago and it was bloody wild. The main winner overall in Australia is SportBet.
Trump. We have unfinished business. Mass deportations. Radical cutting of the Federal government. Get RFK in D.C. to Make America Healthy Again. Get Elon and Ron Paul in D.C. to Make America Free Again. Stop WWIII before it can start. Rout out the snakes of the deep state. etc. etc.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Trump. 80,000+ Amish voting in Pennsylvania for the first time in unprecedented fashion will be the tipping point. I have significant concerns about fraud considering 2020. But some of the worst aspects of the issue were cleared up by GOP legislatures in the swing states, so I think there is more of an even playing field this time around.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala 3/10
Coup nomination from Biden.
Wacky Walz as token old cracka VP pick
No coherent identity as an individual much less as a platform
Cannot put together an intelligible thought
Etc.
Trump 8/10
I actually think Trump has ran a pretty solid campaign.
Prioritizing early and mail in voting despite being ideologically opposed
Not debating in the primary was a no-brainer but nevertheless I give him credit for not walking into the trap
Attacking Biden for his competency and failing health so hard that they forced him out of the entire race.
The RFK/Tulsi/Elon alliance is legendary
Took a literal bullet and got back up
Demonstrated significant capacity by nonstop rallies, multiple longform interviews, etc.
3 hours with Rogan freeform is impressive and will really give people a sense that he is a genuine person
Taking campaign advice from Duke Barron for how to court the youth and online vote was very smart
Vance was an excellent pick to court the MAGA base of white people and rust belt.
All in all, I do think this is a serious fork in the road for America. As Elon said, if Kamala wins, they will ensure that there is enough illegal migration to turn the entire country into California irrevocably.
The American People are not going to let that happen. MAGA.
I am a registered Republican in California. I voted for Trump in the primaries and for Jill Stein in the general election. I voted for Trump because of what he represents to his opponents not because I believe he will keep any of his promises, though hope I might be proven wrong. I also voted Trump in opposition to elitist country club Republicans who hate working class and poor white people like many autistic ‘EHC’ type reborn Classical Liberals on substack and twitter/X. Important issues for me are economics, foreign policy, and immigration. Living in California gave me first-hand impressions of what a vile creature and incompetent politician Kamala Harris was as San Francisco DA and California Attorney General. I’d vote for almost anyone in opposition to this valid DEI poster girl.
I voted for Jill Stein due to her opposition to imperialist proxy wars and covert subversion against Russia and China and opposition to The subversive and dangerous Israeli Lobby. I voted for her out of principle as Harris will win California regardless who I vote for.
Kamala, mainly because getting young men to vote is near impossible, women have the ghost of roe v wade chasing them to the ballot box, then of course the boomers are the boomers. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter because the meaning and the country wide narrative war will still be raging and only ratcheted up by whatever happens tomorrow. Nothing will be solved, only more 140p security cam footage we review and watch constantly to try to prove that who ever the winner is cheated.
> who ran the better cacampaign?
Kamala by a small bit for simply not letting her self be put into many controversial and note worthy situations . Trump campaign was ok when biden was running, then fell after dropped. Went back up after the assassination attempt, then lost momentum after that. There's a lot of weird and great moments followed by really cringe fuck ups like the hinchxliffe situation.
I will start.
>Who are you voting for and why?
Neither, mostly because I'm lazy and live in a safe red state. Can read my essay linked above if you want more information on my reasoning.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Honestly go back and forth. The swing state polls are too herded to do any big brained quantitative analysis at the moment, so it's all a matter of vibes. And to that end, Trump support isn't low status anymore but that also reduces the shy Trump voter effect.... and so my ultimate take is everyone is shooting in the dark right now.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala campaign was 6/10... started strong with the astroturfed brat vibes but fucked up on consistency. She did okay in the debate but they should have bullied homegirl into actually preparing for interviews. Walz choice was meh, he benefited from astroturfed enthusiasm but it petered out.
Trump campaign was 5/10. They were lazy and complacent early on after Biden shit his pants and the assassination attempt gave Trump a somewhat magical aura for a while, but they basically saved it toward the end. Vance choice seemed bad at first but he had more staying power than people gave him credit for and he looked better than Walz in their debate.
Early in Trump's campaign I was more of a collapsatarian who was (and still am) sore about Trump's throwing J6ers under the bus. A second Trump term would at least create more breathing room for the reactionary right as a vanguard, however, and a non-zero probability of his freeing Ross Ulbricht is reason enough for me to vote for him. I'm quite impressed with the aggressive direction Trump's taken his campaign, emphasizing mass deportation rather than wall-building, for instance.
>Who are you voting for and why?
I'm incredibly ambivalent with this election. I ended up casting my vote for Trump. My hope is the young big-brained talent behind him (Vance, Vivek, Musk, Thiel, et al) will run the show in lieu of Trump's caprices and his low-IQ, conspiratorial, evangelical base. The long game hope of mine being the Democrats blame DEI/Woke culture war nonsense for their defeat and continue shifting in a more competent Spencarian direction while the GOP shifts in a similar direction under the big-brain team. Giving us two competent parties with different flavors -- which I feel would be the most healthy outcome for our republic contra many's antagonism towards "the two party system/there all the same".
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think Trump is the favorite. He over-performed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 as the underdog and now is the favorite. I see little reason why he won't again over-perform.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris (4/10): Things looked great for her at first, she seemed to have overcome the initial dislike most felt for her and pivoted away from her retarded 2020 woke-frenzied positions. Since perhaps September her campaign has been low energy. Her strange focus on getting White men was a poor move, she should've focused on White women with a particular attack vector towards abortion. Not appearing on Rogan was a bad look and gave Trump a critical boost amongst flighty barstoolers. She's also done a poor job of either boosting Biden and his "economic success" and tying herself to that or differentiating herself from him and the effects of inflation and employment.
Trump (7/10): Inversely Trump started of poorly but has since shored up his position. He's managed to obfuscate the abortion issue enough somehow both allaying more lukewarm pro-choice voters and his pro-life supporters. The big-brain team of Vivek, Vance, Musk has given a sense of competency behind Trump that he was sorely lacking in 16/20 and his appearances on various barstooler podcasts highlighted his best qualities-- namely, his charisma.
>Who are you voting for and why?
Neither because getting an absentee ballot is annoying. I voted Trump in 2020 though.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Last week I thought Trump. Now I think Kamala because the vibe totally shifted after the Madison Square Garden rally. Harris has organic momentum on Twitter, whereas Trump depends on Musk boosting and the polls probably overcorrected. He could still pull it off though since there's less motivation for the Dems since there's no pandemic, no riots, and he was already president, so the fear mongering doesn't work against undecideds.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Harris campaign is a 7/10: For such an uncharismatic candidate shoved in late, she managed to generate energy and handled the Palestine demonstrators adroitly enough that they didn't sink her.
Trump campaign is 4/10: He was campaigning overtime at the end of the 2020 election, whereas this time it felt like a standard candidate's campaign
> Who are you voting for and why?
I'm voting for Trump because I am a heterosexual, and I prefer fucking my own wife vs watching someone else do it for me.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
Tougher to say. I think it really just comes down to Pennsylvania. If Trump loses PA, then he needs to get either MN, WI, or MI. MN will be tough because Walz is from there and it's not really been a swing state lately. MI will be tough because of Detroit (take that how you will). But, if Trump loses PA, what are the odds that he also wins WI? Probably low. So, depends on PA.
I'm saying Trump though because the polling is looking better than 2016/2020, and that JRE bump. Vance is also a much better VP candidate than Pence, but that may just be hopium. Either way, I'm also not that invested because I think the federal government is beyond saving anyway.
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
I think Harris underperformed and Trump overperformed. That may just be my bias though. I agree with Theon that Harris started strong but then really went downhill, whereas Trump came out weak but then got stronger as election day got closer.
I honestly wonder how much it matters. Most people have their minds made up already, although I have had some very surprising people tell me they are voting for Trump. I agree Trump has managed to downplay the abortion stuff, and going on Joe Rogan, Theo Von, etc was a brilliant move.
Harris: 6/10
Trump: 8/10
>Who are you voting for and why?
I don't vote out of principle. But I support Trump.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Election looks only slightly tilted towards Trump. The polls underestimated him in 2020, but that year was an anomaly due to COVID as well as the fact that Trump was still a low status candidate. Polls will still underestimate support among the Q boomers and his base, but there is no reason to think that we will see polling errors as atrocious as those that happened in previous elections with Trump. Even beyond that, Trump's polling in swing states has traditionally been much more accurate, and he's been overestimated in the sun belt. See
https://www.sebjenseb.net/p/prediction-for-2024-election
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
The Biden/Kamala campaigns were doing what was expected given the candidates they had; you're not going to be visiting 50 states, going hard with interviews, and filling stadiums with those two. The only thing that they can be rated on is their (bad) choice of Walz for VP -- they shouldn't have focused on getting a generic White guy to complement la negra, but a stern and serious person to complement the DEI prostitician. 6/10
Trump's campaign was not as energetic as it used to be, but it was still fine for the most part. Getting Musk on board was a great move. On Vance: I view him as a bold and risky choice. He's not good for optics, but in terms of competence, judgement, and political knowledge he's by far the best choice for a succeeding president. 8/10
Alright, time for me to make my entrance.
> Who are you voting for and why?
Up until today, I was on the fence about whether to vote or not. Today morning I decided, "Alright, I'll just walk up to my polling place (it's at the fire station at city hall three blocks away from me) and get it done." My initial thoughts were either to leave the President slot blank, while voting all Republican down ballot, or else to write in Deez Nutz. I even considered writing in Walt Bismarck, but then I remembered that's not his legal name – which is incidentally kinda faggy.
Basically, though, when I entered in my ticket number and put the card into the printing machine, I was just completely overcome by how much I do not care about this election and how little legitimacy it holds in my mind. I really and truly resent having to participate in a ritualistic institution that does not deserve any respect whatsoever in its current condition, but WeLiveInASociety.JPG or whatever.
Basically, in that quick second of utter despondency and anger, an instinct took over, and I clicked on the Cheeto Nazi Rapist.
I don't even think I can claim that my vote was a "Fuck You" to the system or whatnot. Just a huge, "I Can't Believe How Much This Doesn't Matter". Anyway, my county went 96% for him in 2020, and 72% in 2020, so my participation amounts to nothing either way.
https://imgur.com/a/EkoMsCY
The other thing that may have factored into this last-minute plunge was remembering how upset I was at the assassination attempt. That's a piss poor reason to go for DJT, but it's not even in the bottom 50% of reasons any other voter gives for their ridiculous choice.
https://substack.com/@cactusbrahmin/note/c-61909841
My biggest regret is that he is an old man, and I am inclined to the forcible removal of as many people septuagenarian dinosaurs from halls of power as possible, permanently.
> Who do you think is going to win and why?
I'd put my odds on Queen Vindaloo-Jerk Chicken In A Pansuit. This is my election map: https://imgur.com/a/z4Fnff0
As it happens, it is the exact same election map that my co-Tortugan and technical lead, Mr. Blackbeard came up with. He's a smart guy and it's affirming to know ours instincts are similar. High human capital thinks alike, etc.
This makes me sad because I would really enjoy seeing JD Vance as a beefy, shirtless, oiled up Naruto on inauguration day. https://substack.com/@cactusbrahmin/note/c-75529363
On a more serious note, even if DJT were to make it back in the White House, he is such a disaster on a personal level – he totally lacks any discipline or follow-through – I have no reason to believe he's going to be less of a giant fuckup than KDH is.
Really, the only positive I can see for a DJT win is that there will be some more breathing room for guys behind the scenes to work on putting in place things for a success JD/Vivek person on the next cycle. Even that is doubtful.
People claim that a KDH win would be better for rightists because it will motivate them, but all I predict it going to happen is the spurning up of 55 more grifty political events/organizations that don't do shit at moving the needle on structural issues (e.g., rolling back Civil Rights bench decisions, taking a hatchet to the Fed, ending the Dept. of Education, etc.)
> Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
5/10 for both. I think they each played to where their greatest strengths are and avoided their biggest weaknesses. Honestly, I just hope the counting is over soon (as in no later than tomorrow night)
I guess the best way to summarize how I feel my involvement in today's affairs is as follows: one time, in high school, just to firmly prove to myself that I am not heterosexual, I went down on a girl. It was literally one of the most revolting things I've chosen to put myself thorough, and fifteen years later, I still think I haven't washed the experience out of my mouth.
No matter who wins America is fucked. We have never in my long lifetime been offered such total losers.
This is the real lesson. No matter who wins tomorrow, you, the American citizen, have already lost.
1. Not in a swing state, voting for Harris since I pre-committed 2 years ago to give my symbolic vote to which party didn’t nominate a Septuagenarian. Don’t really care who wins, though Trump will make my Job much harder and more fun at the same time.
2. Harris. My gut is that everyone is herding to not look embarrassed if they lose, except NYT which is releasing crazy, slightly Harris polls that I bet will be accurate.
3. Harris 5/10. It is the most milk toast Campaign possible on just the vibes. Since she didn’t come out strongly for anything, there’s little enthusiasm and little offense.
Trump 3/10. He is not running his incredible 2016 campaign. He didn’t leverage the assassination attempts well. He’s not going on the offensive enough.
Biden 2/10. That was one of the worse campaigns ever. If he didn’t drop out, Trump would have had Regan level victories
>Who are you voting for and why
The most qualified candidate, myself. Not in a swing state so my vote doesn’t matter.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
I think the Blue Wall holds and Kamala wins while losing Nevada and Arizona bc enough Latinos switched to Trump. Honestly I have no idea though, like Walt said there’s a lot of herding. I think pollsters have basically thrown up their hands and don’t want people to yell at them, so they’ve ~all come to a gentleman’s agreement to not publish results outside consensus.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
It’s really hard to rate Kamala’s campaign independent of her. On one hand, they limited her appearances which, given her propensity to vapidly word salad every interview, may have been the right move. On the other hand, she was unknown and more contact with voters would have been a good idea. I think they could have done a better job manufacturing photo op situations, although it only really worked for Trump because he plays the situation perfectly. When he worked at McDonalds, he hammed it up instead of going for a stale blue-collar vibe. I would say 7/10 but I can see +/- 2 points either way.
I’d give Trump 5/10 but again, it’s really hard to rate campaigns independent of candidates. Trump was always going to be Trump. He’s going to get pissed off and go off-script. If it wasn’t Haitians having cat a la mode in Springfield, it’s something else. On the other hand, I think he had a real opportunity for a landslide election post-assassination attempt if he had just shut the fuck up and talked about unity. But he was never going to do that so now it’s a 50-50 election. The campaign did a good job playing to his charisma with his Rogan/McDonald’s appearances and was able to stop some of the bleeding on abortion by focusing on immigration.
Also Trump being Trump has won him huge gains among minority voters which no Republican politician has done in the last 20 years. He also lost a lot of white middle-class pseudo-intellectuals who always vote, will be interesting to see if it evens out and how much the deracialization narrative holds.
Well I was just completely fucking wrong.
to your credit Latinos went for Trump, but in the Rust Belt!! 65-35 michigan!
I’m off to an American expats watch party in my home city of NSW. I did one four years ago and it was bloody wild. The main winner overall in Australia is SportBet.
>Who are you voting for and why?
Trump. We have unfinished business. Mass deportations. Radical cutting of the Federal government. Get RFK in D.C. to Make America Healthy Again. Get Elon and Ron Paul in D.C. to Make America Free Again. Stop WWIII before it can start. Rout out the snakes of the deep state. etc. etc.
>Who do you think is going to win and why?
Trump. 80,000+ Amish voting in Pennsylvania for the first time in unprecedented fashion will be the tipping point. I have significant concerns about fraud considering 2020. But some of the worst aspects of the issue were cleared up by GOP legislatures in the swing states, so I think there is more of an even playing field this time around.
>Rate the performance of each campaign from 1-10, controlling for candidate quality and the current political climate.
Kamala 3/10
Coup nomination from Biden.
Wacky Walz as token old cracka VP pick
No coherent identity as an individual much less as a platform
Cannot put together an intelligible thought
Etc.
Trump 8/10
I actually think Trump has ran a pretty solid campaign.
Prioritizing early and mail in voting despite being ideologically opposed
Not debating in the primary was a no-brainer but nevertheless I give him credit for not walking into the trap
Attacking Biden for his competency and failing health so hard that they forced him out of the entire race.
The RFK/Tulsi/Elon alliance is legendary
Took a literal bullet and got back up
Demonstrated significant capacity by nonstop rallies, multiple longform interviews, etc.
3 hours with Rogan freeform is impressive and will really give people a sense that he is a genuine person
Taking campaign advice from Duke Barron for how to court the youth and online vote was very smart
Vance was an excellent pick to court the MAGA base of white people and rust belt.
All in all, I do think this is a serious fork in the road for America. As Elon said, if Kamala wins, they will ensure that there is enough illegal migration to turn the entire country into California irrevocably.
The American People are not going to let that happen. MAGA.
I am a registered Republican in California. I voted for Trump in the primaries and for Jill Stein in the general election. I voted for Trump because of what he represents to his opponents not because I believe he will keep any of his promises, though hope I might be proven wrong. I also voted Trump in opposition to elitist country club Republicans who hate working class and poor white people like many autistic ‘EHC’ type reborn Classical Liberals on substack and twitter/X. Important issues for me are economics, foreign policy, and immigration. Living in California gave me first-hand impressions of what a vile creature and incompetent politician Kamala Harris was as San Francisco DA and California Attorney General. I’d vote for almost anyone in opposition to this valid DEI poster girl.
I voted for Jill Stein due to her opposition to imperialist proxy wars and covert subversion against Russia and China and opposition to The subversive and dangerous Israeli Lobby. I voted for her out of principle as Harris will win California regardless who I vote for.
I always think of Ryan when binging minecraft. Also he was my first red pill
Excellent, thanks WALT. I'll be reading through this thing this evening as things start going to hell in a handbasket.
>who will I vote for?
My kween kamala, of course.
>who do you think will win?
Kamala, mainly because getting young men to vote is near impossible, women have the ghost of roe v wade chasing them to the ballot box, then of course the boomers are the boomers. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter because the meaning and the country wide narrative war will still be raging and only ratcheted up by whatever happens tomorrow. Nothing will be solved, only more 140p security cam footage we review and watch constantly to try to prove that who ever the winner is cheated.
> who ran the better cacampaign?
Kamala by a small bit for simply not letting her self be put into many controversial and note worthy situations . Trump campaign was ok when biden was running, then fell after dropped. Went back up after the assassination attempt, then lost momentum after that. There's a lot of weird and great moments followed by really cringe fuck ups like the hinchxliffe situation.